BrassTacks latest Threat Analysis

The PPP regime is facing a collapse now. Multiple challenges of security have now brought the Zardari led government into panic mode now. The government of Baluchistan is about to collapse and Zardari’s own residence in Karachi, Bilawal house, is under siege by protestors. The Shias in the country are blocking roads and trains all across the country to protest the killings in Quetta. In Quetta itself, the Hazara Shias are sitting with their nearly 100 bodies in the freezing cold for the last 52 hours demanding a martial law in the city. Hundreds of thousands of marchers are now heading towards Islamabad demanding the scalp of Zardari and his regime. Islamabad is sealed and under siege and the government has fled, hiding behind hundreds of containers and thousands of civilian law enforcement troops.

Pakistan army is facing a multi-axis war from Line of Control to the FATA and is also being dragged into the election duties, over stretching the already thinned out military. TTP, Indian army and Drones are now going for the kill, sensing the vulnerabilities of the Pak army under these most dangerous times.

Now the people of Quetta are demanding army to take over the city. Army is already on the standby in Islamabad to be called in if the situation gets out of control of the government.

This is a very difficult time for the army also. On one hand, the country is sinking and the enemies are opening up more and bloodier fronts everyday causing great casualties on daily basis. On the other hand, people have now started to demand army to intervene to remove the provincial and even federal governments. If the army waits and let the politicians handle the crisis, the country would be lost for good within weeks. The political government has already lost total control.

If the army intervenes, it will have to chose between a martial law or a army backed civilian caretaker government. It can also chose to intervene to support the Zardari regime but it would also be severely burnt in the process as Zardari is now a total liability for the nation and the army.

It is the call of the army Chief now. He remains silent. Deadly silent, causing more and more frustration and anger within the nation and even within the army.

Next week or two would basically decide the fate of the regime and threats would further rise exponentially. Monday, onwards would be the moment of truth for the government now and for the nation. Years of corruption, negligence and complacency has now brought the country on the brink of collapse. A tragic state of affairs indeed.

But great khair would emerge from this anarchy, InshAllah. Baluchistan government has collapsed. The process has begun. Now Islamabad regime would also fall. It is just a matter of time now, InshAllah.

Rabi ul Awwal has begun. A Month of khair and Barakah alhamdolillah. Allah will never abandon the Ummat of Sayyadi Rasul Allah (sm). Milad un Nabi Mubarak. Infinite salat o salam on Sayyadi Rasul Allah (sm).

The Game Has Begun!

Even a British paper acknowledges that the game of changing maps of Pakistan has begun and even say that this possibility was warned by “friends” of Pakistan way back in early 2000. We were first to warn the nation of Yugoslavia option, 4thGW, Cold start and Af-Pak but the snakes in media and the leadership deleberatly blocked us. Now the final phase has begun.

The writer is a Pakistani and is sympathetic to Pakistan and writes:

“Finally, has the big game really begun, shown on some maps in early 2000s? Is this all happenings are a planned script, which is repeatedly warned by friends of Pakistan? If such conspiracy is set then why our leaders are acting according to that script and why no agency disclosing that evil plan? “

Now listen to us carefully. We say again — the 5th Generation war has been launched — which means destroy everything in Pakistan for a total anarchy. Today, we lost about 30 of our troops in a bomb blast by TTP Kharjis. The drama is unfolding in Quetta and on the LoC. Karachi is under siege and the Long March is blocking the entire Punjab and Islamabad.

There is only one solution — a brutal martial law to bring civilian patriotic caretaker government. If this does not happen within days, it would be game over for us and we will have to fight street battles to save our honor, faith and land from Hindu zionists, TTP kharjis, BLA anarchists and MQM Fascist.

DO NOT argue with us on this. Either support the cause or stay silent. Army can still intervene and control the situation but the delay by General Kayani is allowing the enemies to be on the attack ruthlessly. We fully support the demand of Quetta people and much more — Not just in Quetta, bring army in Islamabad also!

We are seeing Pakistan falling apart in front of our eyes and the media, leaders and the politicians still demand elections…. bloody snakes..

Where is Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudrey now? He humiliated FC in Quetta, blocked the working of army and FC, cancelled all orders of FC and gave a free hand to BLA to register cases against patriots and refused to hear our most critical petition on Baluchistan. Now Baluchistan is burning and Mr. CJ is silent, no where to be seen!!

Pak army, do your duty. Nation wants you to come. Even the enemies can feel that they can demolish Pakistan now unless Pak army takes charge. Khair inshAllah

Indian Threat

Read what this retired Indian general says: India should exploit the fault-lines in Pakistan — Baluchistan sectarian and economic through all covert means. This is called the 4th and 5th Generation War. Wars are not fought on borders alone now. Indians are fully waging the wars on our streets and in our urban centers through TTP, BLA, MQM, PPP, media and urban insurgents.

The entire Indian society is now gearing for war with Pakistan. Indian air force chief, Ana Hazare, Indian media and their army — all are belligerent and aggressive, sensing the major failures in Pakistan.

Pak army, if the Indians roll into Pakistan and there is anarchy in Islamabad as it is today, then it would be game over for Pakistan. First red line is already crossed — second red line is inches away!

The infamous Indian activist Ana Hazare now openly calls for war against Pak Sarzameen !! The snakes are all hissing now. The Indian media, Indian air force chief, their social activists….. The clashes on the LoC and the Indian 5th generation war against Pakistan in Quetta, in Fata, Karachi and in rest of the country.

We are monitoring the media and diplomatic traffic and there is no doubt that Indians are waiting for the right moment of anarchy in Pakistan, which they feel would come anytime now.

Let us inform our nation: We may suffer severe losses in the beginning, as we are facing now. If the Indians decide to go for the Cold Start, we may suffer some more as we do not have a government in Pakistan and the nation is most bitterly divided. But these setbacks will bring most patriotic and ruthless brave men to the top for a comprehensive counterattack. Indians have already started the war, but by Allah, InshAllah, we will finish it for them, no matter what the cost.

Just another reminder — before we take on the Indians, we will eliminate the traitors within us without mercy. That is a promise.

Our firm and final message to the Hindu Zionists! You have been warned now.

We are the soldiers of Rasul Allah (sm) and are burning with desire for Ghazwa e Hind! By Allah, we desire for Shahadat more than you desire for wine.

Chief of Patriots Zaid Hamid

We wait for you in ambush. You will not see our faces, we will move stealthy in the darkest of nights, strike like the lightening bolts and then disappear like the morning star!

Our nation is armed and ready and the sight of dirty Hindu Mushriks are enough to unite this nation like a solid wall of steel. Come on, we are eager to meet you in the battle. 30 million armed Pakistani tribals, mujahideen and patriots stand united with our armed forces.

You start this. We will finish it for you. That is a promise.. and this time, we will not take prisoners. If you do not believe us, try us!!

Now you can see the Indian Cold Start also being prepared as 5thGW spread deadly anarchy within the country. We had been warning this for years but the political leadership, judiciary and the media remain with deaf ears and blind eyes!

India is on the edge for roll into Pakistan. Their ground assets are waging the most brutal terrorism war in Quetta, Karachi and NWFP. Now their ground troops are also ready to enter, just as they did in 1971, after the elections.

The anarchy in Islamabad would be the last nail in the coffin, astaghfurullah! The long march may create great crisis for Zardari but ti will also create a great crisis for Pakistan and Pak army as enemies would attack from behind when we would be busy fighting with each other.

Pak army — where are you, for Allah’s sake !!!

Pakistan army, watch your back! Indians are now beating the war drums!!! Indians are now sensing that anarchy would spread in Pakistan in the coming days and Pakistan army would be totally bogged down in internal security, Election duties and controlling the Long Marches. That would mean that Indians will have the strongest opportunity to take advantage of the internal anarchy as they did in 1971. With TTP, BLA, MQM, ANP and Drones already attacking Pakistan, the new political anarchy and elections are moments Indians had been waiting for the launch the Cold Start.

Indian media is already in a frenzy. Even the treacherous Pakistani media is surprised at the rage and anger being drummed up in India. Indian analysts are openly demanding a war with Pakistan. Read the signs — these are the media Psy-Ops being built for the invasion.

Our message to the Indians — We are waiting for you. This time, we will NOT take prisoners. That is a promise. You have been warned.

To Pakistan army — abandon the elections, bring caretaker government and prepare for war. Enemy is ready to launch at shortest notice.

The line of Control in Kashmir is now red hot with more fighting today and another shaheed from our side.

Indians had threatened revenge from “non military” means and we saw this day of carnage and mass murders in Karachi, Quetta, Swat and FATA and even in Pak-Afghan border. This is the 4th and 5th Generation war we had been warning you about but the idiots and the skeptics kept mocking us. Now the war is upon us!!

The nation and its leaders do not want to do tauba. We see no seriousness at any level. Media, government, judiciary, political parties — it is a mass circus and carnival, oblivious of the deadly threats that have gathered within and on borders.

The last straw would be the anarchy in Islamabad which is now expected within the next 4 days! May Allah protect Pakistan. MQM and TTP would be coming to Islamabad in these times of anarchy and war. These are seriously dangerous developments.

Pakistan army is already deployed, alerted and issued with ammunition. They are isolated, surrounded and being attacked not just by the Indians at LoC but also by the traitors in media and terrorists in TTP, ANP, BLA and MQM. It is a desperate war now.

We assure our armed forces that we stand with them and would fight alongside them not just through the pen and the USB but also with bullets when the time comes. We are ready too, armed and booted.

When history of the present times will be written, the future historians would be appalled at the stupidity, treason and criminal negligence of the present leadership at all levels.

To all idiots who still wish to remain in denial and still attack Pak army — wait for the judgement from Allah now. Time for tauba is long gone.

All provincial capitals are on fire

All provincial capitals are on fire. Cant you see this 4th and 5th Generation wars ??

Even MQM/ANP demand that army should take over Karachi.

Now Hazaras are demanding that Quetta should be handed over to army.

Peshawar and NWFP is almost entirely protected by army already.

Now we fear a massive anarchy heading towards Islamabad also.

For how long army would wait, we cannot say. But when everyone else in provincial capitals can demand army to take over, then we can also demand army to take over Islamabad.

If army delays taking over, they will have such a mess that even an intervention later would not be able to recover the country — just as it happened in Yugoslavia.

That is our point — everyone knows within their hearts that political government and democracy has collapsed. Allah willing, Only army can save Pakistan now. Even the politicians, Supreme Court and the Election Commission knows that. They cannot even count votes in Karachi without army’s help!

Only the total idiots or the traitors can demand election in these times and say that only democracy can save the country. Allah does not give guidance to the deaf, dumb and the blind.

If this nation and its leaders are so blind that they cannot see that a horrible war is being waged within our cities and they still call for elections — with or without reforms — then these scenes will be in every city of Pakistan, every day, Naoozu Billah !!

Pakistan need a strong military backed government which should brutally eliminate the terrorists and the corrupt. The entire present political elite needs to be hanged from the lamp posts in Islamabad. But we would want the army to do this cleanup else there would be most horrendous anarchy if done through vigilante justice and street anarchy.

Army leadership still waits and watches the bloodshed and is under pressure from the media, judiciary and the political forces. Even Dr. TUQ is not inviting the army but only wants “reforms” for elections.

We are beyond reforms now. Either we destroy and eliminate the enemies or the enemies destroy us. Either they dig their graves or we dig our graves. No other option now.

Solution

Why do we insist that elections would be fatal for the country? why do we want patriotic caretakers who should rule with iron hand for 3 years ??? This program with PJ Mir was done on November 29th and gave a most comprehensive outline of national security and the solutions. Now when everyone wants their own version of Inqilab, it is time that our members watch this program once again and set their bearings right.

The political model which is enforced in Pakistan today is a degenerated, decayed and stinking model adopted from the British parliamentary democracy which is currently enforced in England.

In England, the Prime Minister is elected from the parliament and is considered the head of the government, which still has a Queen and Monarchy at its head. Queen is also the head of the Church of England, which means religion is NOT separated from the state. Interestingly, there is NO written constitution and emphasis is on “Ijtihad” based on tradition and historical precedence and the needs of the time! Incredible isn’t it ??? No written constitution and Ijtihad as the basis of state craft.

While in England they only have two large parties competing together (both controlled by same Freemason bankers), there are over 50 large and small major political parties in Pakistan divided on ethnic, regional, sectarian and provincial lines, creating the anarchy that we see today. The most corrupt, feudal, traitors and foreign funded separatists make to the parliament and treat Pakistan’s wealth as their private pocket funds embezzling almost 12 billion rupees per day. There is a written constitution which is never practiced either by the political parties nor by the supreme court. Munafiqat and shameless hypocrisy which has no parallel in history.

In US, there is another form of democracy, called Presidential democracy. Two large parties (both controlled by same Zionist bankers), give the illusion of free elections and chose a President, who then chose his own team of hundreds of technocrats to run the government.

In China, they have their own model. One political party which controls the country with iron hand. There are no elections, no democracy, no political parties based on ethnic, regional or religious lines. China is going strongest and the world super power now. So, country can also flourish and become a super power even without parliamentary and presidential democracy !! Strange isn’t it especially when they tell you that democracy of the West is the best form of government ???

Iran has its own model. They select the President directly. They have no political parties and free elections to select their best man as President. That is another form of government, which is NOT parliamentary democracy, NOT party based presidential democracy, NOT a single party based Chinese model. That means, there can be other forms of governments also other than UK, US or Chinese models.

This is what our point is. We need to make our own form of government and political system which is NOT based on western concepts or Chinese models but on Khilafat e Rashida. That would be our own model. Now we come to the Khilafat e Rashida model.

Khilafat model has following attributes:

1. The leader or ameer or sultan or President is directly selected / elected by the people from a group of few finest selected people capable to be leaders.

2. The leader then brings his own team of advisers, technocrats, scholars, scientists and administrators to run the government administration. The system is based on consultation, shoora, consensus and advice but NOT on rule of the Majority. There are NO political parties in an Islamic society. Muslims are one Ummah!

3. The system of government is NOT a democracy and NOT based on rule of the majority. The Ameer has the final say but it is NOT a dictatorship also. This is critical to understand.

4. The system is dictatorship when a ruler behaves like the almighty, taking all powers in his own hands. It is democracy when the majority decides the law even if it is a destructive law. Khilafat e Rashida model is neither of the two.

5. The ruler is the final authority but he is NOT free to decide anything according to his whims. He is bound by the supreme Constitution of Quran and Sunnah. As long as the rulers remains within the boundaries of Shariat, he remains the final authority. If his orders are violation of the Quran and Sunnah, the advisers and the shoora will put him right and he ceases to have the authority of the ameer.

6. This system is NOT a theocracy as any good ordinary Muslim can be the head of the state. But in another way, this system IS is a theocracy because supreme law is Islam and Quran. This is the uniqueness of this system which the modern secular minds do not understand. The only written constitution is Quran and Sunnah. Rest are evolved according to the needs of the time, based on traditions and history, as done even today in British system. They have adopted from Islam what we have abandoned. Free men do not have man made constitution. Only slaves have.

In Pakistan, now we need a new social, political, economic and judicial contract. This one made by a man has become obsolete and is NOT being practiced by the ruling elite nor by the judiciary. It is NOT protecting Pakistan nor giving dignity to the Pakistanis. Free people need a divine constitution, not a man made one.

Sooner or later, this is the destiny we will achieve, InshAllah. If we want to rise and lead the world in the 21st century, we will have to revert back to our faith and Quran and must abandon the political, economic and judicial system of the Kuffar from the West.

Only slaves follow the West. Free men follow Rasul Allah (sm). Take your choice! We have decided and will live and die for this cause. No compromise ever InshAllah !!

Pakistan desperately needs a patriotic caretaker setup. There are no two opinions about it. The caretaker setup for 3 years should rule with iron hand and clean this Pak Sarzameen of this filth of corruption, Kufr and terrorism and revive the nation of Pakistan.

People ask us who will being this caretaker setup?? Let us answer them. Let us propose a set of names to form a board of neutral patriotic selectors. This board of selectors should name 18 people whom they feel should be part of the caretaker setup. Then we ask the army and the judiciary to remove this present regime and bring those 18 recommended people as caretaker government. Then leave the rest to this new caretaker government to do.

In our suggestion, the board for selection of caretaker government should consist of following neutral patriotic people. We will trust their judgement. These people will NOT be part of any political setup but would be part of the board to recommend the names only.

1. Dr. Ajmal Niazi sahib.
2. Ghulam Akbar sahib.
3. Dr. AQ Khan sahib.
4. Dr. Samar sahib.
5. General Hamid Gul sahib.
6. Orya Maqbool Jan sahib.
7. One member from army.
8. One member from Navy.
9. One member from PAF.
10. One member from judiciary.

Such a board which is patriotic, neutral, non-political and ideologically correct with a proven track record of contribution in their own fields should be enough to make a jump start for the Caretaker government. Army and the Judiciary should accept our proposal and act upon it urgently. This will save the country from lots of anarchy and chaos. Otherwise, in the end, when the total anarchy would spread before or after the elections, then the military will have to take over and then the entire caretaker setp would be formed by the army. We are OK wit that too but many others may not be. So, now when we propose that a natural caretaker setup can be brought through a neutral patriotic board of selectors, then this proposal should be accepted. There is khair in what we have suggested, InshAllah.

Many ask us what should be the criteria of the Ameer? Who would select that ameer or group of candidates to select the ameer from? How will the transition of power take place? Who will decide who is qualified to become an Ameer ?

Any person who has the qualities, faith, determination and honesty of Quaid e Azam can be the Ameer in a Khilafat e Rashida model of governance. Quaid is a living example that such people are born even today. The article 62, 63 of the constitution gives a broad outline of any person who qualifies to become a leader.

1. He should be an honest Sadiq and Ameen Muslims.
2. He should be passionate about Pakistan and Islam.
3. He should be avoiding the “gunah e Kabeera” the great sins like Riba, adultry, wine, Shirk, haram earning etc….

Alhamdolillah, there are millions of Muslims in Pakistan who qualify this criteria. Everyone is sinful but it is actually not difficult to find people like Quaid even today. Iqbal had called him “un-corruptible, un-purchasable” !! A competent man with passion for the Ummah, having sincerity and capability is all that it takes. Any short comings are compensated by the sincere and competent advisors, mutual consultations, discussions and Shoora within the leaders to help run the affairs of the state. It is really not that complicated.

It is the strength and power of the Khilafat e Rashida model that it is designed for the brave and free men who are answerable only to Allah (swt) and Rasul Allah (sm) and follow the strongest and dynamic institution of Ijtihad rather than a fixed man made legislation called constitution.

In the original Khilafat e Rashida, we see that all 4 righteous Caliphs were appointed differently, under Ijtihad by the Sahaba.

1. Sayyadna Abubakr was appointed by virtue of his huge stature within the Muslim society. No one could compete against him and all agreed unconditionally.

2. Sayyadna Umer was appointed by Sayyadna Abu bakr when Sayyadna Abubakr was close to passing away. The entire Muslim community accepted this decision as both Sayyadna Abu bakr and Sayyadna were most respected.

3. When the last days of Sayyadna Umer arrived, he selected / appointed 6 people from within the community and asked the Muslims to elect anyone from them. This is the model adopted by Iran today. Muslims selected Sayyadna Usman from the earlier shortlisted group of finest of men.

4. When Sayadna Usman was martyred suddenly, Muslims in Medina requested and appointed Sayyadna Ali by consensus.

All 4 Caliphs were appointed through separate procedures, depending upon the circumstances and environment of the time, through Ijtihad and general consensus within the Muslim society. This great flexibility of the Islamic political model gives it the strength to adopt to the changing national and regional security situaiton and Geo-politics, without restricting it under a man made myopic set of rules made for a particular time.

All the Ameer / Caliphs were appointed for life, unless they deviated from Quran and Sunnah, which they never did.

In Pakistan army, an officer is promoted on the basis of his performance within the organization and finally he makes up to the finest of the lot as the Corp Commander. Then when a former Chief retires, a new one is selected by the President from these finest 20 Lt generals. There is NO democracy in army but great consultation and advice within top officers and within lower ranks but the final say is with the army chief. This is a very unique and robust system which makes the army so efficient. In many ways very similar to Khilafat e Rashida model of governance at national levels.

Rasul Allah (sm) has advised us that even if a black slave without his nose is appointed over us as leader but he takes us on the path of Quran and Sunnah, then we must obey him!! It is a great sin to rebel against an Ameer who is not violating any rule of Quran and Sunnah. Islamic political model is based on supremacy of Quran and Sunnah, sincerity of the leader, collective wisdom of the advisors and society and the most powerful institution of Ijtihad, which allows dynamic decision making for all times to come, without being restrcited by man made set of rules. Only Quran and Sunnah are undisputed. Rest, all laws, can be changed, improved, modified and adjusted according to the needs of the time and space.

So, for Pakistan, if we just have decent human beings, who are sincere with Pakistan and have the knowledge about their subjects, as our group of leaders — patriotic, technocratic, basic Muslims — it would be enough for us for now.

Pakistan, like always, entered the New Year soaked in blood. The spate of killings around the country have increased by the day. What were supposedly vengeful killings by a group of heretic murderers and political assassinations has now evolved into something more sinister: sectarian killings. And let us please, in all due fairness and without bias, acknowledge that a systematic target killing of Pakistani Shias is underway.

To call this dangerous trend as a “genocide” will not be unfair. Initially, I tried to keep myself away from such terms which seem very divisive and myopic in nature. However, statistics show otherwise. Why should we even discuss numbers and figures of the past when just recently about 100 Hazaras Shias were butchered in broad daylight in Quetta? The incident is a horrendous reminder of the fact that Pakistan faces multi-pronged threats internally, as acknowledged by the changes in Pakistan Army’s Green Book.

The Shias of Pakistan enjoy as much civil, social, political and economic rights as do their Sunni counterparts or those of the other sects. Since long, a group of militants who have powerful political backing have been at the fore of spreading sectarian strife and labeling Shias as “kafir” (infidel), claiming they are “liable to be killed”. This fascist, un-Islamic mindset full of vice is the perfect example of how morbid mentality calls the shots in Pakistan, with law enforcement agencies apparently unable to do anything in order to prevent this hateful terrorism. In short, one could label such thugs as “takfiris”, those who label other Muslims besides their own as kafir.

The relatives of Hazara Shias victimized by terrorism in Quetta are absolutely just in their call to the Pakistan Army to make sure peace prevails. Their grievances and aggravations are justified. The unity they have shown with Pakistan, without losing hope in state machinery, is exemplary and worthy of respect. Even in critical times, the Shias of Pakistan, especially Hazaras as an ethnicity in particular, look up to Pakistan’s powerful military and especially the influential Army Chief General Kayani as a ray of hope. Amidst sheer disillusionment, they have not let their emotions be exploited by liberal extremists and certain media elite who are constantly trying to create a standoff between state and the followers of this sect.

Political agents have failed and shown extreme lack of responsibility and sense. The same goes for bureaucracy. Hazaras of Quetta have not buried their loved ones and are sitting outside in the icy cold weather under God’s open skies pleading help from General Kayani. As citizens of this state, they have all the right to invoke the one man who they look up to without expecting a disappointing response.

It is my sincere request as a Pakistani of Sunni adherence to General Kayani: Please realize that the power which rests with you while in office is a responsibility from God. Exercise and utilize it well, while there is still time. Do not compel the Pakistani Shias to let go of the last straw they have been holding on to since long. You are due to retire this year, it would be a welcome sign if you pick up this case and personally visit the Hazara Shias in Quetta. You must visit them. Comfort them, pledge to their leaders and representatives that those who are spreading hatred in our midst whether on foreign orders or self-fomented bigotry will be dealt with in a befitting manner.

Before proposing the best way to resolve difficulties or at least improve the situation along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, let me make it clear that claims of beheading of an Indian soldier by troops of the Pakistan army are nonsense. There was certainly some sort of clash, probably an ambush, that resulted in the deaths of two Indian soldiers, but if – and it’s a big ‘if’ – the incident involved an ambush by a Pakistan army unit (as distinct from a terrorist group), there is no possibility whatsoever that it carried out mutilation of dead bodies. I won’t go into the moral implications of this aspect of the affair, because that would be futile. But, ‘without prejudice’ as the lawyers say, I’ll examine the practicalities.

There has been a great deal of hysterical commentary by people who should know better and who obviously have no idea what an ambush is like. It’s terrifying, extremely bloody, and very fast moving.

A professional ambush takes only minutes from detection of an enemy to vacation of the scene by the ambushers. There is a very short burst of concentrated fire, perhaps half a minute – which is a very long time in war – when thousands of rounds can be fired and directional mines triggered at chest-height. It is more than probable that a human target could have his head ripped from his body by such an intense blitz. Then the attackers move very quickly indeed to get out of the area. There will be artillery fire brought down immediately (if the ambushed group belongs to a thoroughly professional organisation, which describes the Indian army), rapid movement of reserve forces to block likely escape routes, and scrambling of ground attack aircraft to strafe the ambush party. Those who conducted the ambush don’t have time to go round slitting throats or beheading people. They are concentrating on one thing and one thing only: survival by getting out of the area as rapidly as possible.

When one examines the known facts, it appears most unlikely that a Pakistan army unit was involved. The claims and counter-claims, the allegations and refutations will continue to be exchanged concerning this incident and the earlier one in which a Pakistan army soldier was killed. It is useless to debate all this, because inevitably there will continue to be flat statements, followed by flat contradictions, followed by virulent abuse. Hysteria abounds, and ultra-nationalism is rearing its slavering, blood-fanged head. What is certain is that soldiers of both armies have died, and everything possible should be done to ensure that incidents of this sort should not happen again.

Which brings us to international law; whether India likes it or not, the fact remains that on the books of the UN Security Council (UNSC) the Kashmir region is a disputed territory. UNSC Resolution 122 has not been repealed or amended. It states, inter alia, that “the final disposition of the State of Jammu and Kashmir will be made in accordance with the will of the people expressed through the democratic method of a free and impartial plebiscite conducted under the auspices of the United Nations.”

Furthermore, Security Council Resolution 307 “demands that a durable cease-fire and cessation of all hostilities” involving withdrawal of troops “to positions which fully respect the cease-fire line in Jammu and Kashmir supervised by the UN Military Observer group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP).”

India desperately wants to be a permanent member of the Security Council and dare not take any action that would diminish its (perfectly reasonable) claim for inclusion, so it simply ignores the inconvenience of the Kashmir Resolutions.

But it is time the UNSC flexed its muscles about Kashmir, and these recent incidents could be the spur for action. Few could now propose in all seriousness that India should give up the valley and its environs. There is no point in pursuing this, because India will simply never give up the territory it has taken, Security Council or no Security Council, and we have to accept this unpalatable fact. But there is now an opportunity to defuse tension and reduce the possibility of clashes along the LoC.

India staunchly resists UN involvement in Kashmir. Unlike Pakistan, it refuses cooperation with the UN military mission, UNMOGIP. I recollect being denied access to the Indian side of the Line of Control, while carrying out an official investigation of the shooting at a UN observer who was under Indian machine gun fire for an hour. There was no doubt he was under fire; I even retrieved a bullet-shredded UN flag. And he didn’t dream it up, although Delhi flatly denied it happened. But the time has come for India to cooperate with the UN over the Line of Control.

Quite simply, there should be withdrawal of troops of Pakistan and India from the immediate vicinity of the LoC. They should relocate to positions at a minimum of two miles from it, and be replaced by UN troops on both sides. There is a plan for this in the UN headquarters in New York; it’s all been worked out before. It would not be an easy redeployment for either army. Indeed it would be time-consuming, costly and inconvenient. But it would reduce tension, save money in the longer-term, and (although this doesn’t seem to be high on the list of politicians’ priorities) actually save soldiers’ lives. This is one of the many international squabbles in which discussion and mediation should win hands down over the wild-eyed rhetoric of nationalist fanatics. But, as in so many of such disputes, it’s more attractive to beat the nationalist drum than implement measures that would actually further the cause of peace. And, as usual, it is the soldiers who pay the price.

Analysts say at least 10 countries other than Syria are under threat of being turned into bloodbaths in 2013. This list of actual or potential hotspots includes five countries in Africa – Sudan, Mali, Nigeria, Congo and Kenya – and several countries in the Greater Middle East.

The worst case is of course Syria.

Professor Pavel Zolotarev is Deputy Director of the United States and Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

“The plans by Western powers and their Arab allies to have the Assad regime quickly toppled have suffered complete frustration. This, together with a situation in which crisis developments in Europe and the US limit possibilities for direct outside intervention, makes the Syrian conflict an open-ended nightmare. Among other things, no one knows how the Syrian conflict is going to play out in the aspect of the West’s ongoing nuclear dispute with Iran.”

In Lebanon, it is already playing out. According to the Foreign Policy magazine, the Sunni-Shia conflict in Syria is drawing the Shias and Sunnis of Lebanon into its orbit.

The Sunni-Shia confrontation is also worsening in Iraq, where the Shia-dominated government of Nouri Al-Maliki tends to side with Iran in that country’s stand-off with the Sunni-dominated Arab monarchies, the US and Turkey.

We also have an opinion from Russian military analyst Dr Alexander Goltz:

“Syria, Israel, Palestine and Iran are far from all areas that are likely to see conflict in 2013. As NATO’s pullback from Afghanistan gathers pace, the increasingly assertive Afghan Taliban will certainly try to take its campaign to former Soviet Central Asia.”

Already, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are at odds over their allegiances, transport corridors, trade and water resources. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are being racked by ethnic strife.

Back in November, head of the post-Soviet Collective Treaty Organization Nikolai Bordiuzha spoke about joint action plans to stem the spread of instability from Afghanistan.

Expecting nations to resist aggression and instability is in a sense to create further vulnerabilities and risks, which could reshape the history and future of next generations of a country. When the dust will settle over Afghanistan, the probability of further regional conflicts would still not be lower, although preparedness and mobilization can administrate “high consequences risk” scenarios. The stated risk perspective means that as soon as the US/NATO withdrawal completed, the peace process that has been placed between India and Pakistan since 2003 could truly become problematic.

This conceptual framework is being considered in the backdrop of incidents of terrorism, presence of foreign sponsored militant networks in Pakistan and, continuous cross-border violations from the side of Afghanistan and India. As always, allegations and counter-allegations and calls for a ceasefire were prevalent after Indian Army killed two Pakistani soldiers in unprovoked attacks on a military posts at the Pakistani side of the border. Fundamentally, the timing of such incidents is awkward, which practically undermines the long-standing policy ofrestraint. Still, it remains to be seen whether the Indian aggression at the Line of control (LoC) is a tactic to engage Pak-army, in order to mount another national security challenge or these incidents were just aimed to divert domestic/international media attention from Delhi “rape incident” and the subsequent protests against the government.

In the case of Afghanistan, recently (January 10, 2013),Defense Secretary Leon Panetta hailed and what he called “the last chapter” of a long and costly struggle to ensure that Afghanistan can govern itself and avoid reverting to a haven for terrorists. President Karzai too gave his version and stated that “he could assure Americans that Afghanistan will soon be able to provide for its own security. And he said it will never again be threatened by what he called “terrorists from across our borders.” The impact of such claims and statements toward the end of war are hardly helpful because the inconclusive nature of fighting, especially when the so-called victory is not in sight creates further strategic deception for Pakistan and other regional players. Primarily, due to negotiation process with Afghan Taliban, and because Pakistan is a key player, reportedly released Taliban leaders so they can participate in Afghan-led peace solution.

Also, people of Pakistan, military, ISI and other law enforcement organizations have sacrificed more than 45,000 people including soldiers and security personnel, it is even crucial to avoid popular statements, especially the way diplomatic atmosphere is expected to be shaped in the post-2014. It is highly prudent that President Karzai takes the basic decision, and should refrain from presenting a” fake” picture of “good governance” in Afghanistan. Moreover, it is absolutely vital conclusion that if Pakistan’s security considerations and territorial integrity is ignored, then a governable Afghanistan might not evolve in practice. This assessment is interconnected with absence of a clear exit strategy and not linking policy objectives with means of broader international security strategy. Ostensibly, if policy formulation is all about “playing hardball” with Pakistan then such a program will only result into a manifestation of the policy disconnect, which often occurs toward the end of a long war. The case in point is war in Iraq where the US strategy against Iranian influence raised more questions about the credibility of an exit strategy, and thus leaving brutal sectarian and ethnic wars behind.

Setting aside the subject of rhetoric, the passive US policy is also partially to be blamed for growing tensions between Indian and Pakistan. Although the US demands both governments show restraint, but very rarely it intervenes in the interest of a wider stability in the region, that is, to play a critical role and go to great lengths to facilitate the peace process between two of the important countries in South Asia. If one assesses the risk scenarios then the fact is that today Pakistan is facing remarkable burden of war on terror, economic hardships– and simultaneously countering internal security threats and resisting aggression from across its western & eastern borders. On the whole, the outbreak of cross-border clashes are particularly appears to be part of psychological warfare in which bitter propaganda campaign by bias sections of press can endanger the ongoing trade and sports relationship between the two neighboring countries. Therefore, under the current circumstances, the interpretation of peaceful existence of two nuclear powers should be reaffirmed through consolidation of people-to-people contact including building of solid and trustworthy ties between two armies and diplomatic quarters.

To be concluded, the region of South Asia, especially Afghanistan and Pakistan face unusually difficult threats today. A third regional player’s (e.g. Indian) intervention would create even an unprecedented complexity for the US and NATO countries, especially when they are preparing for a successful withdrawal in 2014. Moreover, the repeated failures of the US/NATO in containing the new form of asymmetrical warfare in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and elsewhere is typically posing dire dangers to the national security of countries with less modern weaponry and professional training. This problem can be fixed by upgrading their capacity and meeting their demand for a new and more efficient war technology.

As demonstrated by effective and peaceful discourse between India and Pakistan, that popular and necessary expectations can be met through peaceful processes. Alternative approaches would represent risks, economic sufferings and underachievement for the billions of people of South Asia. In concluding, a few notes of caution in order. There is no such aggression, which simultaneously imposes conflict and still remains clinically detached, but there are guarantees for peace and stability if effective decision-making is being implemented for the sake of future generations. Afghanistan, India and Pakistan should recognize this historical opportunity.

S M Hali, The Nation

Pakistan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) not only enjoy deep-rooted fraternal ties, but also share historic maritime traditions. Pakistan Navy (PN) has the unique honour of having extended training to Royal Saudi Naval Forces (RSNF) officers and sailors in their formative years. The current commander of the RSNF, Vice Admiral Dakheel-Allah Bin Ahmad Bin Mohammad Al-Wakadani, is also a graduate of Pakistan Naval Academy and reserves a special place for his alma mater.

The RSNF has now come of age and taken its rightful place in guarding the maritime interests of KSA. Despite its exposure to naval exercises with the most advanced navies of the world, the RSNF holds PN in high esteem. Naseem Al Bahar (NAB) is a biennial exercise, which was evolved as manifestation of the unique Pak-Saudi interpersonal relationship and mutual resolve to enhance bilateral cooperation in facing the common challenges.

Ever since its institution in 1993, the exercise has developed in the shape of an advance level maritime exercise, providing a formal opportunity for both navies to learn from each other’s experiences, enhance interoperability and share and refine tactical doctrines. It is a matter of personal satisfaction for this scribe, being involved in the inception of the exercise during posting as Naval and Air Attaché at Riyadh (1991-95).

To-date nine exercises in the NAB series have been held, each being refined in the light of lessons learnt from previous encounters. In the last decade, regional security in the maritime domain in the rapidly evolving geopolitical environment has added a new dimension to the challenges being faced by both navies, prompting the planners to include counter-terrorism and convoy protection in light of the onset of maritime piracy, in addition to anti-air, anti-submarine, mine counter measures and intelligence based operations conducted in a multi-threat environment.

Set for executing naval manoeuvres in the North Arabian Sea, the tenth exercise in the series is being launched from the Jinnah Naval Base at Ormara for the first time, adding a significant milestone for PN in its overall quest for operationalisation of the western sea board.

Scheduled from January 12 to 22, 2013, the joint exercise is not merely based on physical manoeuvres of various surface, aerial and sub-surface naval platforms, but involve the entire gamut of maritime operations; planning, executing and drawing lessons from NAB-X. The tempo of the exercise will be built progressively, with seminars on maritime strategy, followed by tactical war games, conducted during the harbour phase at the PN Tactical School for rehearsing the tactical procedure before entering the sea phase. Every major exercise entails extensive planning activities and practice, including the determination of safety parameters to accrue maximum tactical/operational training values as well as maintain safety and security, while operating in a realistic environment, including the shadow of ‘Electronic Warfare’.

Beyond the pale of the planning segment, the sea phase will be conducted in two parts: workup phase for tactical training; and war at sea phase for operational/tactical training; culminating in live weapon firing display by both navies involving a wide array of weaponry from their arsenal, witnessed by VVIPs from both nations. Simultaneously, PN marines and their Saudi counterparts will conduct a joint counter-terrorism tactical exercise in the Ormara Hills.

All in all, NAB-X is designed and planned to assess operational readiness of participating units, improve inter-operability and tactical proficiency in the execution of combined operations, and conduct defence of port infrastructure, including anchorage against an asymmetric threat and draw pertinent lessons.

A major consequence of the defence diplomacy being demonstrated by flag showing of international navies in Pakistani ports is belying the impression that Pakistan in general and Karachi in particular are unsafe for a visit. The recent safe port of call by Japanese and Chinese naval ships to Karachi in September and November last year, amply added to the reassurance of international callers to Pakistan despite rumours to the contrary by Pakistan’s detractors.

Defending a 960 kilometres’ long coastline stretching to 200 nautical miles of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and keeping Pakistan’s Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) open because 95 percent of its trade and 100 percent of its oil imports are being transported via the sea route, make the maritime sector the bedrock of its national economy and define the role for PN. Joint exercises like NAB and the forthcoming multinational Aman-13 in March will go a long way in adding to the operational readiness of PN in meeting various challenges, in a multi-threat environment operating in collaboration with a multitude of allied navies.

Pak-Saudi navies to conduct exercise ‘Naseem Al Bahr X’ including Electronic Warfare simulation

by Zaki Khalid
[Terminal X]

Naval forces from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are all set to take part in the tenth annual ‘Naseem Al Bahr’ maritime exercise.

This year’s exercise is meant to revitalize operational preparedness of both countries’ sea forces. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia enjoy a historical strategic relationship especially in matters of defence and security; since long, Pakistan’s armed forces have been at the fore of training their Saudi Arabian allies in all three domains (terrestrial, aerial and maritime). As a matter of fact, the current Commander of the Royal Saudi Naval Forces, Vice Admiral Dakheel-Allah bin Ahmad bin Mohammad al-Wakadani’s alma mater is the prestigious Pakistan Naval Academy.

The South Asia region, in particular Asia Pacific with the inclusion of the Indian Ocean, faces increasing threats from strategic game-planners. The US and Iran are at a stand-off on one hand, piracy is rampant near and around Africa and the Gulf of Aden and on the other, Pakistan and India are building up their respective sea defences keeping in view the warming geopolitical climate.

As reported on Terminal X earlier, the Indian Navy has embarked on new frontiers by setting up naval bases in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. More recently, Indian Coast Guard commissioned Mayabunder station in North Andaman Islands.

According to renowned defence analyst Sultan M. Hali, what sets this year’s upcoming naval exercises apart is the fact that for the first time, it is being launched from the Jinnah Naval Base at Ormara.

The 10-day exercise will be conducted between January 12 and 22, 2013 involving surface, aerial and sub-surface manoeuvrings. This is in light of the development by which the country’s maritime forces, besides the other two arms, has considerably shifted focus from conventional tactical warfare to quite a  strategic one, with emphasis on long-term contingency plans in lieu of aggression from regional and non-regional stakeholders alike.

However, no strategic weapons will be tested as per claims. To date, the naval variant of Babur has remained a mystery with some analysts openly saying such a make doesn’t exist at all, atleast in working prototype.

Apart from joint drills involving counter-piracy measures, offence/defence practices, instructional sessions on maritime strategy and most importantly, Electronic Warfare will be simulated in real-time environment. Of late, Iran conducted EW drills in a show of defiance to Arab states and the US over the Strait of Hormuz tension.

Analyst Sultan M. Hali further mentions that besides sea-based training, both the Pakistan Marines and their Saudi counterparts will conduct a joint counter-terrorismexercise in the rugged Ormara Hills of Balochistan which overlook the Makran coastline.

Commander Pakistan Fleet, Vice Admiral Muhammad Zakaullah, made mention of the prevailing threats to the region’s maritime security during his presentation at the Galle Dialogue 2012:

The Indian Ocean Region, which houses 56 littoral and hinterland nation-states and home to five strategic choke points;  presents many contrasts and daunting challenges. Today the greater Indian Ocean Region besides being home to maritime great game of the 21st century is a microcosm of various conflicts, disputes and threats, which cut across the entire conventional to and non-conventional spectrums. These include traditional maritime security concerns, including the risks of interstate or intrastate conflict; threats to good order at sea, such as maritime terrorism, piracy, and illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing; and non-traditional security concerns, including climate change, marine natural hazards, energy, food, environment and human security.

While dicussing steps to limit such threats, he said:

Arguably devising mechanisms to deal with such non-traditional maritime security threats offers significant potential for states to cooperate and work collectively than more contentious security matters.

With this objective in mind for the maintenance of Middle East and Asia’s maritime security, these drills will set a new standard of commitment and dedication on the part of Pakistan Navy which has dynamically improved its operational strength and efficiency, especially under the command of its current Chief, Admiral Muhammad Asif Sandila.

This exercise will warm Pakistan’s naval warriors well for the Aman 2013 exercise, scheduled for March.

Pak-Saudi Naval Exercises to Begin on January 12

PakSoldiers.com

Naseem Al-Bahr, or gentle sea breeze as the word signifies in the Urdu lexicon, is the code name for the bilateral naval exercises between the Pakistan Navy (PN) and the Royal Saudi Naval Forces (RSNF).

The exercises are set to begin on January 12 this year. The relationship between the two navies has a long history that dates back to the period of 60s when the Pakistan Navy offered to train Saudi naval cadets at the Pakistan Naval Academy, Karachi. The ties have since grown in size and stature. The relations now envelop several mutually beneficial areas covering professional, academic and operational fields.

The Saudi officers are regular recipients of mid -career professional as well as advance BE engineering courses at the NUST-affiliated Pakistan Navy Engineering College, PNS Jauhar. In addition, a number of seats are availed by the RSNF each year in the PN staff course.

Numerous first generation Pakistan Navy-trained Saudi naval officers have held key positions in the RSNF hierarchy in the past while countless others from later generation are now in the top slots.

In an attempt to reinforce cooperation and expand the mutually beneficial ties, exercise Naseem Al-Bahr was formalised ipso facto between the PN and the RSNF in 1993. Held every two years the exercise usually begins with combined seminars that examine various maritime security challenges from each side’s perspective. The seminar proceedings are followed by simulated war games at PN tactical training centres ashore. In the final phase, major naval combatants, including aircraft from each side, conduct joint manoeuvres at sea. The biennial exercise has matured and now advanced level maritime drills are accompanied by weapon sensors evaluation, test firings of missiles and honing of various doctrines as well as interoperability procedures. Special Forces from both sides conduct anti-terrorism and other simulated exercises alongside.

From a small fledgling force in 1950 with a few coastal vessels, the Royal Saudi Naval Force has developed and now exerts considerable sway over the Persian Gulf and Red Sea region through its eastern and western fleets headquartered at Jubail and Jeddah respectively.

The Pakistan Navy has meanwhile also morphed into a regional force over the past decade or so. The makeover facilitated through new platform acquisitions, cutting-edge technology and distant operations now allows the PN to wield influence in much of the western Indian Ocean. This is manifested through sustained presence and engagement with multinational naval task forces.

Both PN and RSNF are major players in their respective areas of interest within the western Indian Ocean. Given the convergence of interests, robust capabilities to radiate influence far and beyond, the two navies can synergise their potential to significantly advance the cause of maritime security and stability in the wider arc of the Indian Ocean. Exercises like Naseem Al-Bahr, whilst deepening the time tested ties, continue to serve such a purpose and concomitantly stimulate peace and harmony for the larger good of the region.

When during the Musharraf regime, Pakistan government initiated the construction of Gwadar deep-seaport in the Balochistan province with Chinese assistance, a siren went off in the capitals of the US, India and Israel. The US took it as a threat to its global plans, and India felt that it threatened its integrity. Israel also took it as a greater threat from an Islamic country. Some defence analysts had opined that development of Gwadar port would shift the great game of Central Asia to Pakistan, though Afghanistan would remain its gateway.

As regards its strategic importance, due to its proximity to the vital sea lanes, Gwadar is the major important seaport in the world. Located on Pakistan’s southwestern coast, it is close to the Strait of Hormuz from where more than 17 million barrels of oil passes every day. Its ideal location between three key regions, South Asia, the oil-rich Middle East, and oil and gas-resourced Central Asia have further increased its significance.

If fully operationalised, Gwadar Seaport could connect the landlocked Central Asian states with rest of the world. Being the commercial hub, the port is likely to increase volume of trade, bringing multiple economic and financial benefits to Pakistan like the Suez Canal which changed the destiny of Egypt when Israel returned it to the former. It will enable high-volume cargo vessels to move in the major oceans. Otherwise, big vessels cannot move from and to Karachi Seaport owing to dearth of depth. Therefore, small cargo ships with low weight are sent to Dubai from where containers are re-loaded on big vessels. This practice discourages country’s imports and exports. In case of completion, Gwadar project will not only uplift the impoverished people of Balochistan by providing thousands of employment opportunities and is likely to develop whole the province by redressing their grievances. Besides, it is situated 470 km away from Karachi making it less vulnerable to the Indian naval blockade which Pakistan faced in 1971.

As Pakistan has close friendship with China, so in the long term, the Gwadar Seaport could serve as a port of entry for oil and gas to be transported by land to the western region of China. If Beijing wants to emancipate itself from transportation or military problems along Asia’s southern coastline, direct access to the Indian Ocean may be the solution.

In this respect, Balochistan’s Gwader project where China has invested billions of dollars irks the eyes of US-led India and Israel; hence, they have been supporting Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other separatist elements which are arranging subversive activities in the province as part of their covert designs. In this regard, Pakistan’s civil and military leadership has repeatedly said that training camps are presence in Afghanistan from where arms and ammunition are being sent to the militants in Balochistan to dismember Pakistan. In the past few years, a number of Chinese engineers, working at Gwadar were kidnapped and killed by the foreign-affiliated insurgent groups. The main aim behind is to discourage Beijing for the development of Gwadar port.

However, it is our misfortune that Pakistan’s political leadership has caused delay in the completion of Gwadar Seaport owing to lack of interest and willingness, instead of vigorously pursuing the project. Unfortunately, short term vested interests of these politicians have prevailed over the long term national interests, creating differences between the state institutions which further blocked the rapid development of the project.

In this context, Pakistan’s Minister of Port and Shipping, Senator Baber Khan Ghauri has often found involved in blame game so as to shift his responsibilities in relation to the Gwadar project. On August 28, 2012, in a meeting of the Senate Committee on Ports and Shipping, he pretended that government’s failure to transfer 584 acres of land in possession of Pakistan Navy at the mouth of the port was a major obstacle with Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) and resolution of the related issues.

Notably, in 2006 after completion of the Phase-1 construction work, Gwadar Port Authority(GPA) invited offers from experienced port operators for the management of the project, and in February 2007 signed an agreement with Concession Holding Company (CHC), a subsidiary of PSA for operational control of the seaport. PSA was to invest $ 550 million during the next five year for development of the port, but since than, no substantial progress was achieved. In fact, GPA’s lack of thinking in strategic terms in maritime sector and its inability to persuade PSA in marketing and operationalisation of the current terminal area has failed to capitalise on the immense potential which resides on this project.

Nevertheless, actual facts which have delayed the completion of strategically important Gwadar project have not made public. In this regard, the agreement between GPA and PSA was flawed, and the Minister of Port and Shipping, Senator Baber Khan Ghauri is largely to be blamed. It was because of him that contract rules were violated and laws were bent wherever these were needed to ensure the interests of the concession holders rather than to safeguard the business interests of both the parties.

While Senator Baber Khan Ghauri who is from Karachi-based MQM political party, is not interested in the operationalisation of the Gwadar port because it will reduce national dependence on Karachi Port Complex. As a result, his party will lose political leverage and in turn control of Karachi city. So the minister who has deliberately neglected development of Gwadar project, himself is involved in land grabbing in Gwader city. It is owing to these reasons that even after the lapse of several years, Gwadar city still lacks road and rail track connectivity due to which, its usage is severely limited. Moreover, no commercial vessel has arrived at Gwadar port.

Now, Pakistan has decided to give the operations at Gwadar port to China as soon as the terms of agreement with the SPA expire. Nonetheless, this port needs special attention of the government for its operationalisation.

Abysmal neglect of Gwadar Port

Sultan M Hali, Pakistan Observer

The port of Gwadar is strategically located at the apex of the Arabian Sea and at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Newly Constructed as a strategic warm-water, deep-sea port, developed by the Government of Pakistan with Chinese assistance at a cost of USD $248 million and inaugurated by the President of Pakistan on 20 March 2007, the port held great promise for the people of Balochistan, whose province, despite being the richest in mineral resources and having a 750 Kilometer coastline, offering tranquil beaches and abundance of marine life, remains the most neglected part of Pakistan. Subsequent governments have not only left the Balochis in gross neglect but plundered its riches, leaving the inhabitants in shabby and decrepit condition.

When the project for the construction of the Gwadar Port was commenced under a master plan, it was being projected that the tiny, underdeveloped fishing village with a population of only few thousand, which had been purchased by Pakistan from Oman in September 1958, would become a major metropolis. It was expected that Gwadar alone would change the quality of life of the downtrodden Balochis; provide them with means of livelihood and take them from rags to riches. Unfortunately, as soon as the construction plans were announced, real-estate investors pounced at the location like vultures. Banners went up in major cities of other provinces to invest in the projected real-estate schemes, some were genuine but others mere scams, with the local Balochis benefitting nothing. The second problem arose because of its strategic location mentioned earlier. It’s ideal location between three key regions, South Asia, the oil-rich Middle East, and oil and gas-resourced Central Asia caused alarm bells to toll in Washington, New Delhi and a number of other capitals. It was perceived that the Chinese presence at Gwadar could choke the US, Indian and other interests plying through the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. For Pakistan, Gwadar Port offered a short and direct warm water access to the landlocked but energy rich Central Asian States and Afghanistan. Gwadar was to bring the same benefits to Pakistan as the Suez to Egypt. Completion of the port of Gwadar was to not only enhance the efficient process of the transfer of goods but also secure Pakistan’s maritime interests.

During the 1971 Pak-India war, the single port of Karachi as well as the Naval base was blockaded by India. Being 470 kilometers away from Karachi, Gwadar is a secure alternate. Additionally, to link Gwadar Port both with Karachi, the 653 km-long Makran Coastal Highway was constructed linking Gwadar with Karachi via Pasni and Ormara. After its completion in 2004, Pakistan’s National Highway Authority (NHA) commenced the construction of the 820-km long M8 motorway linking Gwadar with Ratodero in Sindh province via Turbat, Hoshab, Awaran and Khuzdar and onwards with the rest of the Motorways of Pakistan and the north, to enable the transit of goods to and from Afghanistan and the Central Asian States. To provide efficient aerial link, in 2007, the Civil Aviation Authority of Pakistan acquired land to construct the new Gwadar International Airport on 6,000 acres, at an estimated cost of Rs 7.5 billion.

Unfortunately, vested interests are putting impediments in the fruition of the project. To deter China, a number of its engineers were abducted and some were killed. Strife and insurgency has enveloped the province of Balochistan, with separatist elements fanning hatred against fresh settlers while simultaneously sabotaging the road communications project. Besides the foreign hand, numerous sources point fingers at internal machination too.

Sajjad Shaukat, international affairs expert and author of the book “US vs. Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power”, in his article ‘Gwadar Seaport completion requires immediate attention’, posted on January 5, 2013, reveals that “Although secret agencies like American CIA, Indian RAW and Israeli Mossad have been arranging acts of sabotage in Balochistan including other parts of the country for their countries’ collective strategic interests, yet it is our misfortune that Pakistan’s political leadership has caused delay in the completion of Gwadar Seaport owing to lack of interest and willingness, instead of vigorously pursuing the project. Unfortunately, short term vested interests of these politicians have prevailed over the long term national interests, creating differences between the state institutions which further complicated the situation rather than a progress for the rapid development of the project.”

The erudite scholar apportions blame on Pakistan’s Ministry of Port and Shipping, stating that on August 28, 2012, in a meeting of the Senate Committee on Ports and Shipping, it was presented that government’s failure to transfer 584 acres of land in possession of Pakistan Navy at the mouth of the port was a major obstacle with Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) and resolution of the related issues. When this scribe contacted Naval Authorities, they confirmed that the 584 acre tract of land at Shambha Ismail near Gwadar, was acquired legally by PN but in interest of the project, it has offered to vacate it, provided alternate real estate is allotted. To-date they have not heard from official sources.

Similarly, impediments are being placed on the development of the northern road link so that the dependence on Karachi continues. Moreover, it has been disclosed that the Gwadar Port Authority’s agreement with PSA is flawed and rules were bent to benefit some blue-eyed persons. Now, Pakistan has decided to give the operations at Gwadar port to China as soon as the terms of agreement with the PSA expire. In this regard, the Planning Commission’s task force on maritime industry has proposed that an operational agreement with PSA be cancelled, which had undertaken to spend $525 million in five years, but nothing was spent during the last three years. No commercial vessel had arrived at Gwadar port during the same period. If Gwadar Port is to meet the same fate as PIA, Railways, energy sector and steel mill, it is indeed abysmal but in this case, the poor people of Balochistan will continue to be submerged in the quagmire of neglect. It is time to save the project, which holds immense potential for the uplift of impoverished Balochistan.

THERE is sudden escalation of tension on the Line of Control (LoC) due to belligerent attitude of India, which is sending clear signals to do some mischief and that too at a time when Pakistan was moving towards general elections or democratic transition. It is just because of reconciliatory approach of and statements from Islamabad that the situation has not yet gone out of control, otherwise Indians have started full blast propaganda campaign against Pakistan and are even hurling threats.

The real issue at the heart of the tension is martyrdom of Lance Naik Aslam on January 6 on the LoC but instead, on the basis of intensive propaganda, Indians are conveying the impression as if Pakistan was at fault and committed some sort of aggression. The brutal killing of Aslam has caused gloom in the length and breadth of Pakistan and there are demands that the issue should be taken up with all seriousness with New Delhi but Indians, instead, have come out with allegations that Pakistan took out two Indian soldiers and mutilated their bodies. Pakistan Army had already denied these baseless allegations and on Wednesday Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar also rejected them adding that the Indian propaganda is aimed at diverting attention from martyrdom of Lance Naik Aslam. The line adopted by India is in line with its policy to malign and pressurize Pakistan through different tactics and in a latest twist of events they have been propagating the theory that the armed struggle in Occupied Kashmir would resume and intensify in 2014. This is clearly an attempt to raise accusing fingers towards Pakistan as the intention is to convey to the world that after withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan in 2014 the ‘militants’ would move towards Kashmir, whereas the fact remains that Kashmiris have lost all hopes of peaceful resolution of the conflict and as stated by Mirwaiz Omer Farooq recently they have lost patience. Pakistan has instantly exposed Indian propaganda by proposing UN probe into LoC incident but we believe it needs not adopt a defensive posture that sends wrong signals to India. The deliberate escalation of tension should also serve as an eye-opener to those who are in a haste to grant MFN status to India and are telling the nation that the move would benefit the country, no one knows in what manner.

Let the World See What LoC Looks Like

PKKH

Why is India shying away from an impartial investigation or perhaps an ‘internationalization’ of an already global and most serious conflict in the world making South-Asia the most dangerous place on earth ?

Snow may have not melted an inch at the Line of Control, but temperatures between two nuclear armed nations Pakistan and India have suddenly started to rise to dangerous levels.

Heavy Gun and Mortar fire is continuously being reported at the LOC where another Pakistani soldier ‘Havaldar Mohiyuddin’ has been martyred by shelling from third such incident of aggression from Indian side of the border. In an unprovoked attack on 6th January Indian forces raided Pakistan’s ‘Sawan Patra’ security check-post in Haji Pir area of Bagh Sector killing one of the soldiers identified as Lance Naik Aslam. India admitted exchange of fire but denied crossing over.

Leaving behind a dagger, gun and denial, Indian armed forces after two days of this incident claimed to have been brutally attacked 600 Meters within their perimeters on 8th January by regular Pakistan army troops killing two of their soldiers in Mendhar area of Poonch district in a brutal manner which was earlier known as a signature of Kashmiri Mujahideen. One of the Indian soldiers was beheaded among the two who were killed in an ambush and two more were injured before the raid party safely returning to their positions.

“In a significant escalation to the continuing series of ceasefire violations and infiltration attempts supported by Pakistan Army, a group of their regular soldiers of Pakistan Army intruded across the LoC in the Mendhar Sector on January 8, 2013,” Public Relation Officer (PRO), Ministry of Defence (MoD) Northern Command, J&K, Lt Col Rajesh Kalia said.

Pakistan denied this allegation terming it as propaganda and invited UNMOGIP (United Nations Military Observation Group) for impartial probe of allegations, which was immediately rejected by Indian Government.

“We are certainly not going to agree to internationalize the issue or allow the United Nations to hold an inquiry. That demand is obviously rejected out of hand,” Finance Minister P Chidambaram told a press conference after the meetings of the Union Cabinet and CCS here.

Why is India shying away from an impartial investigation or perhaps an ‘internationalization’ of an already global and most serious conflict in the world making South-Asia the most dangerous place on earth ?

To find a factual answer we have to look at the recent developments at the de facto border that divides Free Kashmir from the one occupied by India. A cease fire was imposed in November 2003 at a time when Pakistan Armed forces were dealing with simmering threats within borders as a backlash of Afghan War that engulfed this region in 2001. Taking advantage of Af-Pak situation and cease-fire India started constructing fences on the LOC to stop Kashmiris from crossing over to the other side on the pretext of militancy. It was a deliberate further water-tight their control over Kashmir’s part that was already in their own control on the same model that is applied by Israel in Palestine.

India constructed thousands of KM of these unique cage type fences costing billions of dollars which are equipped with thermal, seismic sensors, infra-red cameras and surveillance drones along with their home-grown satellites. Most of this surveillance technology is provided to them by Israel and continuous efforts are being made for a concrete wall that can end all possibilities of intrusion on a cease-fire line, not an International border.

Apart from the fences they have 350,000 Troops deployed on the LOC, who can form a human chain if they hold their hands together on the border. Most of them patrol the border with trained dogs and hand held movement detectors and NVS (Night Vision) goggles for keeping a check on movement. There is a post of maintained at every 50 Meters with gunners and dozens of soldiers & under-ground bunkers for protection.

More-over they have mined the whole LOC with Jumper mines and Clay-more mines which are banned internationally and none of these mine fields are marked which cause casualties among the civilians of both sides of Kashmir.

Most recently Indians are assessing the LOC for a permanent Gaza-type wall with the help of Israel that can bare the heaviest of avalanches. All and more of this is being done for permanent occupation of Kashmir.

On the other hand, Pakistan has few posts, with no such surveillance equipment as compared to India and very limited forces, enough to maintain deterrence.

In such a situation it is senseless to imagine that Pakistan would provoke India for an escalation. On many previous occasions India has violated LOC and attacked civilians on Pakistan side and the Army posts as well due to the edge they have.

Question is why does this recent conflict helps India

Nothing seems to be going towards Congress’ politically. India is facing humiliation of massive proportions internationally on its treatment towards women. Ongoing rape-crisis has muddled any bit of mythical shine that India gloated on. Marginalization of Muslims and other minorities is something that has been chronic since decades. Indian media was shunned to silence on the riots in Dhule, Maharashtra between Hindus and Muslims due to Pakistan’s Win in the cricket series this month. Communal rights, Social Disorder, Darkness prevailing in world 3rd largest democracy that was shocking the world through Main Stream and Social media needed some motivational, emotional drift.

An attempt is being made to divert the attention and flare-up the sentiments for successful election campaign since anti-Pakistan posture serves as a guarantee for success.

World needs to understand on how sensitive matters can get in this region. If India thinks it has already created enough havoc by supporting Pakistan’s internal fault-lines in Baluchistan and Fata on American Shoulders, and now it can directly try out some adventure then this would be one of the historic mistakes it will commit. Defense against India, Freedom of Kashmir, Protection of Pakistan runs in the blood of every Baluch, Sindhi, Muhajir, Pathan and everyone who exists in the ‘Green’ Land. World should intervene and have a look at the turmoil caused by India in Kashmir, its border and this region that is at the brink of a nuclear catastrophe.

The Line of Control

The News

Haji Pir Pass is a vital geographical feature on the western Pir Panjal ranges that stride across Indian-occupied Kashmir and Azad Kashmir. This makes it strategic enough for both sides to vie for control whenever an opportunity presents itself. The Line of Control (LoC) that divides Kashmir into being occupied by India or administrated by Pakistan is a ‘temporary’ feature, identifying the geographical boundary of the areas that are held by the two armies. It therefore keeps changing with every war and whenever both sides trade posts and heights.

Even when there is no war like situation, there remains a continuous effort to ‘improve’ positions, resulting in small tactical operations that include routine artillery firing, as well as raids in conjunction, aimed to evict the other and seize control of the commanding heights over strategic features.

Since a large part of this area is impassable and large-scale manoeuvres remain almost impossible, it essentially remains a battle for posts between India and Pakistan. These continue even as the two continues maintain a dialogue at the political level, enabling a semblance of peace, even if only at the surface.

Haji Pir has been traded between both sides in the two wars of 1965 and 1971 and in the period in between, for example in the Kargil episode which is a strategic area because that is where supplies to Siachen pass through.

It is not the physical control of these spaces but the control of the dominating heights around them that implicitly deliver the control of the spaces to the occupying side. Such remains the nature of the terrain.

2013 has dawned with similar attempts by both sides to gain positional advantage. Pakistan alleges that the Indian army attempted to gain control over a Pakistani post in the Buttle area by storming the post. Pakistan fiercely contested this aggression and forced Indian troops to retreat but not before suffering one casualty and three injured men. However, if this attempt had been successful, it would have placed the Indian army in a better position vis-a-vis the vital Haji Pir Pass that Pakistan holds. Two days later India alleged a similar Pakistani violation of the LoC and claimed that two of its soldiers had been killed, with serious charges of mutilation of the bodies by the Pakistani troops.

India went to town with these allegations. Its media gave hours of airtime to stir passions amid jingoistic bellowing openly demanding immediate retribution. It used this opportunity to bring back its most favoured chant of Pakistan being an irresponsible and rogue nation, unworthy of any respect among the nations of the world. The propaganda has been vicious; the timing intriguing and the warmongering relentless.

As India sounded the drums of war and maligned Pakistan insidiously, the Pakistani media was busy consumed with its own ‘playfulness’ of the internal political circus.

Most famously, the ceasefire across the LoC has been trumpeted about since the agreement in 2003 between both nations to institute it as a major confidence building measure (CBM). Yet, in 2012 alone there were at least 75 occasions when the ceasefire was violated by both sides through unprovoked shelling of the other. Both sides suffered at least eight to ten casualties by these exchanges of fire of small and medium arms. Artillery exchanges are not unknown. Yet, the ceasefire has been hailed as a major success at the international level by both nations. Clearly, they perceive war to be quite different from what is routine exchange of shells across the LoC; and they are right. But again, neither Kashmir nor the LoC has been as quiet as one assumes.

Indians relate such incidents of cross-border shelling to Pakistani attempts to force infiltrators through. They of course embellish their narratives further by associating terror with the Pakistani state and flaunt it relentlessly. If such a propagandistic streak irks global sensitivities about Pakistan’s nuclear status, and leads to a global pressure to unarm nuclear Pakistan, it will implicitly deliver to India the crown jewel of its national security objectives. It is long winded – true, but then what else are India’s options other than to conflate terrorism, internal instability, irrationality of the Pakistani mindset with manifestations as dastardly as slitting dead Indian soldiers, and a failing, rogue of a nation that has India and the entire world on tenterhooks.

Or, at least that is the essence of their media aggression. This then is the crux of the combo that India plays whenever it finds an opportunity. Minus Pakistani nukes, the ‘hegemon’ has a free ride in all manners of saying. Not only that, India dreams of it and, if ever realised, it will relish it.

Here are a couple of scenarios to consider: What if Pakistan were to be framed as a failed state with a fractious and feuding society; an inebriated polity; a broken economy without any indications of resuscitation, and a rogue army that perpetually rules the roost and nourishes terrorism as a home-grown commodity – the popular planks of propagating and instituting a belief of Pakistan as a failing state? Chances are someone out there would like to work towards that end by exploiting Pakistan’s vulnerabilities in all or most of these areas and keep it embroiled amid signs that over time entrench belief in the fidelity of such formulation.

The last twelve years, if not more, have seen Pakistan slide down the matrix of a stable state. A combination of the above indicators underwrites such debilitating characterisation. Twelve years down the line, after having been pushed into a devastating war at the cost of serious socio-economic fundamentals, Pakistan is just about reaching a more conclusive approach in dealing with this menace.

With the troops drawdown in Afghanistan enabling hope of the war coming to a closure there, Pakistan is now able to focus so much more on its internal challenges. Is it that someone out there would like Pakistan to continue to remain embroiled in a bleeding war against insurgencies, if those groups that have challenged the state are left unharmed?

That becomes probable if the Pakistan Army is forced to extricate its over 150,000 troops from the western regions to the Indian borders, again to contend with the rising possibility of a limited armed conflict. That way the insurgencies mushroom and Pakistan continues to remain stuck in the quagmire of internal challenges and willy-nilly is pushed closer to a state of failure under the weight of perpetual adversities. On a map of geo-political enactments, it isn’t a far-fetched possibility.

On the flip side, with the war in Afghanistan closing down, is there a possibility that heightened tensions in Kashmir and with India, can find an alternate employment for the various groups who till-date were conveniently engaged elsewhere, but will now be suitable diverted and found another occupation.

This might also save Pakistan another crippling engagement with another war on terror! The choice is India’s to determine its own way ahead. Beating war drums will become countervailing to their larger long-term interests.

For those who read too much into the recent doctrinal changes of the army, get back for another detailed reviewing. The conventional threat is well and alive.

For those who wanted to bypass Kashmir

Pakistan Observer

THE sudden escalation of tension on the Line of Control has understandably dampened hopes for sustainable normalization of ties between Pakistan and India and repeated violations of the LoC have forced Pakistan to sensitise the international communityabout Indian intentions and threats to the regional peace and security.

There are reasons to believe that India is up to some mischief in view of domestic uncertainty andinstability in Pakistan and in this backdrop the Foreign Office has done well in briefing Westerndiplomats in Islamabad on the issue, urging them to play positive role in defusing tension. According to Foreign Secretary Jalil Abbas Jilani the military authorities have already briefed the Military Observers Group in India and Pakistan and the option of raising the issue at the UN Security Council is also open. It is strange that Indians initiated firing on the LoC and killed a Pakistani soldier but they were quick to malign Pakistan on the force of propaganda campaign, apparently putting Islamabad on the defensive. Though our civil and military authorities are claiming that they are conveying their concern to the international community but the measures initiated by them were too late and too little if one considers the quantum of threat to the security of the country at this critical juncture. Therefore, they need to be more proactive in exposing Indians that repeatedly violate the sanctity of LoC and have killed and injured several Pakistani soldiers in recent days. The latest incidents should be an eye-opener to all those who never get tired of signing rhyme of so-called ‘Aman Ki Asha’, plead for granting MFN status even without safeguarding interests of our own businessmen and farmers and go to the extent of suggesting that normalization should be done without any progress towards resolution of core issue of Kashmir.

What is Pakistan Army’s  strategic direction? Is it to focus on western border, internal front/security, or eastern border? The simple answer to these questions  is that existential threat remains from India and thus the primary focus must be on it.

The new army doctrine has done well to highlight the concept of deterrence and defence. Sub-conventional, conventional and nuclear tiers are the facets of warfare faced by Pakistan today. Yet, the Green Book and Pakistan’s new army doctrine are being misquoted, misunderstood and even exploited by sinister forces. The ISPR that is doing a good job needs to clarify again that the threat from India is increasing in terms of its military build-up, even as Pakistan deals with the post-9/11 non-state actors.

Western Border: By 2014, the US-Nato forces will be leaving Afghanistan, but the Taliban will be staying back!  As they withdraw, it will be with the realisation that the use of military force proved inadequate. Also, the Afghan National Army that will be left on its own may collapse just like the South Vietnam Army did once the Americans left Vietnam. Even if Kabul does not fall for some time, the Afghan Taliban will emerge as a dominant force. So Pakistan’s army needs to build friendly relations with the Afghan Taliban.

Indeed, Pakistan has no conflict with the Taliban or other Afghans. A negotiated peace in Afghanistan facilitated by the ISI is in our national interest. After the withdrawal of the US-Nato troops from Afghanistan and reduced stress on the war on terror, the Pak Army’s focus on the Afghan border would reduce considerably. Therefore, logically the western border cannot be the strategic direction of our army in future.

Internal Front/Security: Terrorism has wrecked Pakistan’s internal fibre, economy, terrorised the society, resulted in thousands of deaths and untold tragedies. To deal with it, the state needs to pursue political, social and economic reforms. All elements of national power need to be harmonised to achieve synergetic effect against the terrorist malaise.

For the security component, an internal security force (perhaps under military command, but a separate organisation) must be established, trained and equipped. Globally, several internal security force models are available. The Pakistan Army was not created, nor is configured for policing duties. It should not be reduced to a glorified, elevated police force that is, probably, the intention of the state’s internal and external enemies.

Eastern Border: India continues to occupy Kashmir, the water issue has aggravated, resource clash with India rises. It arms feverishly and has become the world’s biggest arms importer. The Indian military developmental strategy (fleets of helicopters, high-tech airpower build up, etc) is to give teeth to its ‘Cold Start’ strategy. But the ‘Cold Start’ or attack within 72 hours of preparation cannot conquer Pakistan. Even the American view was that it could have mixed results.

In fact, now the ‘Cold Start’ offensive can lead to catastrophic effect. Pakistan’s defensive preparations, besides early mobilisation would be augmented by the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons Nasr against advancing Indian military forces. This, in turn, can lead to strategic nuclear exchange or an all-out nuclear war. A nuclear war will destroy the world in general, not just South Asia.

So a nuclear war must be avoided, which actually means that all wars between Pakistan and India need to be avoided. Peace is required between the two states. Diplomacy, trade and travel can prove helpful. However, absence of conflict can be the real guarantee of peace.

Nevertheless, Kashmir remains a flashpoint between India and Pakistan, and has to be resolved. A recent military clash in Kashmir could always escalate. If our army is oriented towards the western border and embroiled in the internal front, New Delhi will not even talk about Kashmir, let alone the desire to resolve it.

Peace with India: Peace talks with India, besides Kashmir, should focus on defence budget limits and military hardware inductions to ensure strategic balance. Both countries need to improve the quality of life of their citizens, rather than an open-ended arms race.

In future, the Pak Army will have to disengage from the western border, make peace on the internal front (Taliban, Baloch militants) and refocus on the eastern border.

After 2014, Pakistan Army will need to redeploy itself. This would add conventional deterrence to the ‘Cold Start’ and reduce the use of nuclear weapons, even though Pakistan’s credible nuclear deterrence would be in place.

However, peace with India can be achieved. For this, Pakistani statecraft should be backed by a lavishly nuclear armed, professional war fighting military machine called the Pakistan Army!

by Ziyad al-Shamsi
[Terminal X]

Dubai’s Police Chief says the Muslim Brotherhood as an organization and Iran as a state both are a menace for security of Arab states.

While talking of the recent raid in which a UAE militant cell was busted with links to Yemen-based Al Qaeda, Dahi Khalfan said that the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran want to “export their revolution to the region” as quoted by Asharq Al-Awsatnewspaper.

He highlighted that the counterterrorism raid was held by the UAE’s security forces with the assistance of Saudi Arabian intelligence.

Khalfan further opined that members of the Muslim Brotherhood want to tarnish the repute of Arab rulers.

Reuters reports that more than 60 local Islamists were arrested this year alone with links to “a foreign group”.